Bob Brinker on Hillary Clinton's Proposed Health Plan

HILLARY'S HEALTH PLAN

Caller: What is the economic impact of Hillary Clinton's health care plan?

Bob said if the true cost of Hillary's health care plan could ever see the light of day she would be run out of the country. It is an open ended program that will add trillions of dollars to the national debt. The caller said that is what she thought and noted that we already have a medicare and medicaid. Bob said our health care system needs fixing, but Hillary's proposal makes no financial sense.

David Korn: There are many different articles about Hillary's proposed health plan, but it was tough to find one that I thought might be objective, so I have linked below a search result that has a bunch of different articles on the topic:

• Hillary's health care proposal
  
  

Excerpted by Kirk Lindstrom from "David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007." November 10-11, 2007 Newsletter

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Bob Brinker on Oil Prices and Hubbert's Peak

This is an excerpt from David Korn’s November 10-11, 2007 weekly newsletter (Click for a FREE SAMPLE ) that comments on Bob Brinker’s Money Talk.

Oil and ENERGY PRICES

Caller: Senator Lieberman has proposed closing ANWR to oil development.

Bob said that is ridiculous. The original U.S. geological survey in 1980 estimated that along the ANWR coastal plane could produce 17 billion barrels of oil and 34 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Bob said anyone who opposes the drilling is not in touch with reality. The caller said he is from Alaska and people who suggest the oil drilling will kill the wildlife are not telling the truth.

Bob said it is the same thing with nuclear energy, people who oppose it because of the alleged danger it poses are in the pockets of special interest groups and aren't facing reality. Bob noted that only 8% of ANWR would be subject to exploration, 92% would not. In addition, there are estimates that it would create tens or maybe hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Caller: This caller asked Bob to discuss the theory of "Peak Oil."

Bob said it is not a theory, it is real. Hubbert's peak was the model used to predict that the U.S. oil production would peak around 1970 and from there the rate of production would enter a terminal decline. Bob said we have already experienced peak oil here in the U.S., and it's going to happen in other parts of the world as well. Bob said he thinks peak oil is good science even if others disagree.

The caller asked Bob if he agreed with the Armageddon forecasts that are based on the eventual decline in oil production?

Bob said he didn't because we don't rely on oil near as much as we used to as well as the fact that we now have alternate sources of fuel that are being tapped. Oil only accounts for only 4.5% of GDP in the U.S., whereas years ago it was in the teens. That is why you haven't seen a significant economic impact even with oil trading in the mid-$90s. That said, world oil production is either at, near or past Hubbert's peak. Countries like China and India are growing very fast which puts a lot of demand on oil. We obviously have supply/demand oil issues; otherwise oil wouldn't be trading above $90. This is hurting people who live paycheck to paycheck. Bob said he doesn't know where oil prices are going at this point and only a fool would try to predict that at this point.

David Korn Comment: Charlie Maxwell, the oil energy expert, was on Moneytalk in September and predicted that oil should stay in a range of $50s up to $80 a barrel for another two years. Bob took up this mantra in response to a caller some weeks back saying he was going to go with Charlie's prediction. Up until recently, Charlie had been pretty on the mark as oil had only gone to the upper $70s. With oil now knocking on $100 a barrel, the prediction Charlie last made is pretty much out the window.

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Bob Brinker's Moneytalk (From David Korn's Newsletter)

Excerpted from "David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007." October 27-28, 2007 Newsletter

MICROSOFT

Brinker Comment: Microsoft reported earnings on Thursday night and it was a great report! The new version of Windows has really increased the growth rate at the company. The Vista version has really been on a tear. Sales of Windows Vista are up 25%. Net income is up 23%. Revenues are up 27%. Every one of the company's five divisions exceeded goals. Coming up in February, Microsoft will issue updates to its products. If you go back to the early 1990s, Microsoft has been an incredible stock. If you invested $7,000 in Microsoft in 100 shares in the 1990s, that would be worth $252,000 today. How can that be? The stock split so many times that you would now have a quarter of a million dollars. The stock rose 9.5% on Friday alone, bringing the stock up into the mid-$30s. All in all a great report for Microsoft.

EC: Microsoft is one of only two stocks that Bob has maintained a "hold" rating on in his newsletter for many many years. The last stock he recommended was UTEK, and given the fiasco surrounding that stock, I think he is gun shy over picking another individual stock, and I think it is possible that he never will again. As far as Microsoft is concerned, it has underperformed the market until recently, but the earnings report was wonderful. Bob recommended it for purchase many years ago, then switched to a hold, and then in March 2003 recommended it as a buy again, and now it is a hold. He hasn't really talked about it for a long time, but in the wake of this great earnings report, I think he wanted to remind listeners that he still covers it in his newsletter.

EC#2: You may recall that I purchased Microsoft for my newsletter portfolio not all that long ago based on my view that Vista would be an earnings boost. I sold Microsoft for a gain, after my stop loss was executed during the correction process this summer. Should have bought back in, but I am happy about putting some of the cash reserves into the QQQQ shares which are up almost 11% since my purchase, and include shares of Microsoft. In fact, QQQQ constitutes over 5% of that index. The Spiders Select Technology (Ticker: XLK) which I also own in my newsletter portfolio has a ton of Microsoft in it, almost 10% of that exchange traded fund holds Microsoft, so it has benefitted from that company's performance as well. Here is a link to Microsoft's Investor Relations web site where you can download the earnings report listen to the webcast and read the 2007 annual report:

http://tinyurl.com/2agbgz

EC#3: Another interesting development in Microsoft is its announcement that it is taking a $240 million equity stake in Facebook's next round of finance at a $15 billion valuation. Microsoft is being given exclusive third-party advertising platform partner to Facebook and will begin to sell advertising for Facebook internationally in addition to the U.S. Read more about it here:

http://tinyurl.com/yw8tap

EC#4: Microsoft is also getting a lot of interest from the gamers for its latest video game Halo 3 on the Xbox 360. This game is big big business. Halo 3 sold more than $300 million in sales in the FIRST WEEK ALONE! That makes it the fastest selling video game ever. I may have to purchase that game -- for my kids of course, not me. Really. Learn more about it here:

http://tinyurl.com/ys8xr9

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DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is neither sanctioned by, nor written under the auspices of ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker. This e-mail is not a substitute for listening to Moneytalk, it is only my interpretation and commentary of some of what is discussed on Moneytalk, along with additional educational information that I include, editorial comments about the market and helpful financial links. I also provide my own stock market commentary to subscribers as part of my service and give them access to my web site, www.BeginInvesting.com. If you want to know what was said verbatim on Moneytalk, listen to the show live or subscribe to "Moneytalk on Demand" which allows you to listen to the show in case you missed it live. The web site, bobbrinker.com has all the links to the ABC Radio Network stations that broadcast the show live. The information contained in this newsletter is not intended to constitute financial advice and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security. This newsletter is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice or legal advice. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007.

Bob Brinker says "The Stock Market Looks Good"

STOCK MARKET LOOKS GOOD

Brinker Comment: The stock market had another good week. The S&P500 is just 1.9% below its all-time record high. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1535 and is acting very nicely. The Dow is at 13806. We have seen volatility in the market, but part of that is due to the fact that we are at very high levels. The financial media might make a big deal out of the number of point move in an index, but the number of points is not as important as the percentage move. If the Dow were trading at 100,000, and it was down 1,000 points that would only be 1%. Today, a 1% move in the Dow is 138 points. In 1982, a 1% move was 8 points. When the financial media gets focused on the number of points the Dow is down, ignore it. Focus on the percentages.

Brinker Comment: We like to see what we had a week before last where we had a big down day which shook out some investors. This is a good development because it rids people who should not be in the market. "Stocks tend to fluctuate" as J.P. Morgan once said, and that is an absolute truth. The investors who get bent out of shape over short term fluctuations in the market should not be in the market.

EC: Bob remains bullish on U.S. equities. In his opening remarks, he gives some insights into how he views quick drops in the market during an ongoing bull market. Remember we had over a 300 point drop in the Dow on October 19th? For some market-timers (particularly the momentum type), that kind of drop can trigger sell signals. For some technical types, it also doesn't bode well because it is usually accompanied by horrible market internals. For purposes of Bob's long term stock market timing, this kind of down day in the context of a bull market is a healthy development.

MICROSOFT (MSFT )

Brinker Comment: Microsoft reported earnings on Thursday night and it was a great report! The new version of Windows has really increased the growth rate at the company. The Vista version has really been on a tear. Sales of Windows Vista are up 25%. Net income is up 23%. Revenues are up 27%. Every one of the company's five divisions exceeded goals. Coming up in February, Microsoft will issue updates to its products. If you go back to the early 1990s, Microsoft has been an incredible stock. If you invested $7,000 in Microsoft in 100 shares in the 1990s, that would be worth $252,000 today. How can that be? The stock split so many times that you would now have a quarter of a million dollars. The stock rose 9.5% on Friday alone, bringing the stock up into the mid-$30s. All in all a great report for Microsoft.

EC: Microsoft is one of only two stocks that Bob has maintained a "hold" rating on in his newsletter for many many years. The last stock he recommended was UTEK , and given the fiasco surrounding that stock, I think he is gun shy over picking another individual stock, and I think it is possible that he never will again. As far as Microsoft is concerned, it has underperformed the market until recently, but the earnings report was wonderful. Bob recommended it for purchase many years ago, then switched to a hold, and then in March 2003 recommended it as a buy again, and now it is a hold. He hasn't really talked about it for a long time, but in the wake of this great earnings report, I think he wanted to remind listeners that he still covers it in his newsletter.

EC#2: You may recall that I purchased Microsoft for my newsletter portfolio not all that long ago based on my view that Vista would be an earnings boost. I sold Microsoft for a gain, after my stop loss was executed during the correction process this summer. Should have bought back in, but I am happy about putting some of the cash reserves into the QQQQ shares which are up almost 11% since my purchase, and include shares of Microsoft. In fact, QQQQ constitutes over 5% of that index. The Spiders Select Technology (Ticker: XLK) which I also own in my newsletter portfolio has a ton of Microsoft in it, almost 10% of that exchange traded fund holds Microsoft, so it has benefitted from that company's performance as well. Here is a link to Microsoft's Investor Relations web site where you can download the earnings report listen to the webcast and read the 2007 annual report:

http://tinyurl.com/2agbgz

Excerpted by Kirk Lindstrom from "David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007." October 27-28, 2007 Newsletter

Click for a FREE SAMPLE of David's Newsletter. Ask for the rest of the "October 27-28, 2007 Newsletter" you saw here.

Bob Brinker Update for October 20-21, 2007

BOB BRINKER FIX: This isn't a week I am doing an Interpretation of Moneytalk. I did listen to the programs, and there was no indication of any change in Bob's outlook. Specifically, the important points were as follows:

1. Bob noted that the stock market is showing resiliency in the face of record high oil prices, with the S&P 500 only off 4% from its record high.
2. Quality bonds are acting extremely well.
3. The inflation data continues to be good with the latest data from the CPI and core PCE showing benign inflation.
4. Bob expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the October 30th
   meeting.
5. Bob expects the trend of the dollar to be gradually lower.

Excerpt by Kirk Lindstrom from "David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007"

Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index October 2007

David Korn reports:

HSNSI: The readings from the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average stock market exposure of a group of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by Hulbert Digest, stands at 40.3% as of Thursday night. That is about half of HSNSI's all-time record high of 79.7%, so that's not out of hand high. By comparison, the last time I reported on this number was in mid-August near the correction lows when this data point stood at a minus 11.3% which was a bullish sign. Mark Hulbert writes about the sentiment picture right now, and addresses the HSNSI, Investors Intelligence and the AAII surgey, concluding that an analysis of these three suggests that the market will be 2.5% higher in three months time. For those of you that are interested in tracking sentiment, this is a good article to read. Entitled, "Is glass half-full or half-empty" you can read it here:
http://tinyurl.com/ypk4s3

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Excerpt by Kirk Lindstrom from "David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007"

Charlie Maxwell Interview by Bob Brinker - Sept. 2007

This is an excerpt from David Korn’s May 19-20, 2007 weekly newsletter (Click for a FREE SAMPLE ) that comments on Bob Brinker’s Money Talk.

September 8-9, 2007 Newsletter

MONEYTALK GUEST - CHARLIE MAXWELL

Maxwell/Brinker: Bob opened the interview praising Charlie for his predictions on Moneytalk that the price of oil would trade in the $50s to the $70s which has been right on the mark in recent years. Bob asked Charlie if he had changed his forecast. Charlie said we have seen oil go from $25 a barrel in early 2003, to as high as $75 a barrel, with a peak at $78. There was a lot of oil being traded at $75. The rise from $25 to $75 is huge and represents a 200% increase. Nevertheless, Charlie said he thinks supply and demand are roughly in balance today and might stay here for a while, particularly given the weakness that is going on in the U.S. economy. A slower U.S. economy can translate into reduced imports, and thus slow foreign demand from countries like China. This period of transition where we stay in the range of $50s up to $80 a barrel should stay with us for another two years.

Looking forward after the next two years, Charlie gave his forecast as to where he thought the price of oil was going. Charlie pointed out that we have to take into account world population increasing and the demand for more cars in countries such as Russia, India and China -- all this suggests that demand is going up while supply is not. With this as a backdrop, Charlie thinks that by 2010-2011, we could see oil trade at over a $100 a barrel.

EC: Charlie has actually gone on record in the past projecting that West Texas Intermediate Crude would rise to rise to $85 by 2010, $180 by 2015 and $300 by 2020. Based on today's interview, it looks like he raised his 2010 prediction by $15 a barrel.

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Bob Brinker on Energy Prices and Charlie Maxwell

This is an excerpt from David Korn’s July 28-29, 2007 weekly newsletter (Click for a FREE SAMPLE ) that comments on Bob Brinker’s Money Talk.

ENERGY PRICES

Brinker Comment: The price of oil has been rising. It is peak driving season in the U.S. which causes demand for gasoline prices. Gasoline prices have been rising, not just because of the demand from drivers, but also because of the fact that we are strained in our refinery capacity. When we take out refineries for routine maintenance or because of a break down, it causes problems. The entire refinery industry has been pretty stagnant. Crude oil is now at $77 a barrel which is essentially at the record. The all-time record close is $77.03 and on Friday it closed at $77.02. That is close enough to call it a record level. One of the things that has helped make oil priced high is the rebound in GDP in the second quarter which many think can continue into the future.

David Korn Comment: Over the last year or two, Bob has stayed firm in his prediction that the price of oil would trade between the $50s and $70s per barrel. Bob said he bases that prediction on the outlook expressed by energy expert, Charlie Maxwell. That means that we are at the very high end of that prediction.

Brinker Comment: The U.S. has fallen flat on its face in terms of managing its oil needs. We knew back in the mid-1970s when we waited in gas lines that we had a problem. Here we are 33 years later and we still have a problem. One problem is that we, as a nation, consume 24% of all the oil produced around the world. The International Energy Agency is forecasting that worldwide oil demand is going to increase 1.8% next year. While that might not sound like much, when you consider that in the world today we consume 80 million barrel a days, then a 1.8% increase is another 1.5 million barrels a day that will be consumed. A lot of this has to do with China and other emerging markets. How is the world demand going to keep up with supply? That is the question. In the U.S., we can do more. Its hard to believe that the U.S. doesn't like nuclear power. Other countries in the world use nuclear power widely, including France, Japan and others. Even China has announced 40 new nuclear plants.

David Korn Comment: The International Energy Agency recently made its July 2007 report available to the public. In the report, they are projecting global oil demand to rise by 2.5% in 2008. Read the report at this url: http://omrpublic.iea.org/


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July 7-8, 2007 Recap

BOB BRINKER FIX

This isn't a weekend I am doing an Interpretation of Moneytalk. Bob published his newsletter earlier in the week, and the shows that follow that usually are relatively bland as these were. Bob did show up, and here the highlights in bullet form:

1. Bob discussed the recent jobs report saying that the number of new jobs reported of 132,000 fell right in the "sweet spot." As for the stock market, it is now only about 1% from its all time highs.

2. Bob noted that the FOMC left interest rates alone, and predicted that they will remain unchanged at the August meeting.

3. Bob mentioned an auction of the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities next week. Here is a link to the TreasuryDirect auction web site:

http://tinyurl.com/n4ytz.

4. Bob said he still likes GNMAs and expects them to trade in a range of $9.50-$10.50. If you can't handle the volatility, Bob suggested creating a laddered portfolio of CDs.

Finally of note, Bob got a mention by Mark Hulbert this week in an article where Mark analyzed the top market timers. Mark quoted from Bob's June Marketimer where Bob had wrote that he believes there is "no risk" of a bear market occurring this year. I referenced that quote in my June 9-10, 2007 newsletter. It bears noting that none of the other market timers are bearish right now and their average stock market exposure is 79% --- exactly the same as mine. Read Mark Hulbert's article entitled, "Top market-timing newsletters are still bullish" at this url:

http://tinyurl.com/29vy2d

See: Thursday, June 26, 2008 Bob Brinker Fan Club Market Update - DOW down 19%

• => January 2008 FREE ISSUE of The Retirement Advisor newsletter
  

June 30-July 1, 2007 Recap

BOB'S ADVICE ON NEW MONEY TO INVEST

Caller: This caller had $300,000 to invest and wanted Bob's advice. Bob recommended that she take a"top down view" which means first trying to determine what your asset allocation should be. To do that, you consider your age, your tolerance for risk and make your decision on how you are going to allocate between stocks, bonds, real estate and any other asset class. Bob said for new money, he would recommend a dollar cost average approach using either the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund for the equity portion of your portfolio or the GNMAs for the fixed income side.

EC: A couple of things here. First, Bob obviously isn't too worried about the terrorist attack because he is still recommending going into stocks. We aren't at the market highs, nor are we at Bob's last "buy" level of 1380. Thus, the dollar cost average approach seems to be the conservative advice Bob will maintain unless the market declines a fair amount further.

Charlie Maxwell Interview by Bob Brinker

This is an excerpt from David Korn’s May 19-20, 2007 weekly newsletter (Click for a FREE SAMPLE ) that comments on Bob Brinker’s Money Talk.

MONEYTALK GUEST - CHARLIE MAXWELL

Brinker Comment: Bob introduced Charlie Maxwell, Senior Energy Analyst for Weedon & Co. Charlie was educated at Princeton and then Oxford. He has been working in the oil industry since the 1950s. In the 1960s he became an analyst on Wall Street and has been rated the #1 energy and oil analyst on many occasions. Bob heaped heavy praise on Charlie as the best of the best in terms of energy analysts and mandatory listening for Moneytalk trekkies.

Maxwell/Brinker: Bob opened the interview praising Charlie for his predictions on Moneytalk that the price of oil would trade in the $50s to the $70s which has been right on the mark. Bob asked Charlie if he had changed his forecast. Charlie said he sees more of the same, but knows that it can't last forever. There are two schools of thought. One school thinks oil can go to the low $30s. Charlie wishes that would happen because it would help our economy, however, he doesn't see it happening. When you look at the large oil producing countries, it looks like things are getting tighter, not looser. Charlie thinks in one or two years, we will actually move out of the range that he has projected and move higher.

Maxwell/Brinker: Bob said we are close to a record in gasoline prices. What is going on?

Charlie said there are two factors causing the increase. The first is that we have had a return to the high end of oil prices, now in the upper $60s. Over the summer, we will probably run in the low $60s which could reduce pressure. We have also had a series of refineries go down in the U.S., in part because they have been running so hard that maintenance was inevitable. It looks like now that we will have enough gasoline over the summer. Charlie thinks we may hit $3.15 as a peak this summer, but that it will then recede to below $3.00.

Caller: This caller asked Charlie about the implications of our country not preparing for oil running out. Charlie said we are not preparing ourselves either materially or psychologically to meet a sudden emergency. If there was a sudden outbreak of war, for example with Iran, or between Israel and Iran, we could find that 60% of the oil supplies were on the wrong side of the coin. What we have done is created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Reserve gives us 6 months to a year supply, but long term we need to do something else, whether it is nuclear energy or clean burning coal. If we had a sudden cut-off in supply, it could seriously impact our economy.

David Korn Comment: As of Friday, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory stood at a total of 689 million barrels. We have 274 million barrels of the sweet stuff and 415 million of the sour stuff. Sweet and sour oil. All of a sudden I have a craving for shrimp fried rice. Keep track of the reserves of the inventory at this url:

http://tinyurl.com/2vgohz

Maxwell/Brinker: Bob asked Charlie where he stood on the idea of using nuclear energy. Charlie said he is for it because it has a proven record of clean burning fuel. However, Charlie said you shouldn't discount the fifth fuel. What is the fifth great fuel? Well, number 1 is oil; number 2 is gas; number 3 is coal; number 4 is nuclear. The fifth great fuel is "conservation." Charlie said that usually we need a warning shot -- such as a threat to cut off the oil from the Middle East.

David Korn Comment: If you are interested in energy conservation, Wikipedia has a very well-developed web page on the issue here:

http://tinyurl.com/24s7hm

Maxwell/Brinker: Bob noted that France is way ahead of the game in terms of building nuclear plants. China has announced its intention to step up their efforts and other countries are talking about that as well. Is this the reason for the big move in the price of uranium? Charlie thought it was and said that one of the enduring sources of supply in the future looks to be nuclear. What our country needs to do is recognize that we are going to be less competitive if we don't make the switch soon.

David Korn Comment: The last time Charlie was on the show he said we had thought for many years that the supplies for uranium would have been almost limitless. It turns out that we have about 60-80 years left of it.

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