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Monday, November 12, 2007

Bob Brinker on Hillary Clinton's Proposed Health Plan


Caller: What is the economic impact of Hillary Clinton's health care plan?

Bob said if the true cost of Hillary's health care plan could ever see the light of day she would be run out of the country. It is an open ended program that will add trillions of dollars to the national debt. The caller said that is what she thought and noted that we already have a medicare and medicaid. Bob said our health care system needs fixing, but Hillary's proposal makes no financial sense.

David Korn: There are many different articles about Hillary's proposed health plan, but it was tough to find one that I thought might be objective, so I have linked below a search result that has a bunch of different articles on the topic:

Excerpted by Kirk Lindstrom from "David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007." November 10-11, 2007 Newsletter

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Bob Brinker on Oil Prices and Hubbert's Peak

This is an excerpt from David Korn’s November 10-11, 2007 weekly newsletter (Click for a FREE SAMPLE ) that comments on Bob Brinker’s Money Talk.


Caller: Senator Lieberman has proposed closing ANWR to oil development.

Bob said that is ridiculous. The original U.S. geological survey in 1980 estimated that along the ANWR coastal plane could produce 17 billion barrels of oil and 34 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Bob said anyone who opposes the drilling is not in touch with reality. The caller said he is from Alaska and people who suggest the oil drilling will kill the wildlife are not telling the truth.

Bob said it is the same thing with nuclear energy, people who oppose it because of the alleged danger it poses are in the pockets of special interest groups and aren't facing reality. Bob noted that only 8% of ANWR would be subject to exploration, 92% would not. In addition, there are estimates that it would create tens or maybe hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Caller: This caller asked Bob to discuss the theory of "Peak Oil."

Bob said it is not a theory, it is real. Hubbert's peak was the model used to predict that the U.S. oil production would peak around 1970 and from there the rate of production would enter a terminal decline. Bob said we have already experienced peak oil here in the U.S., and it's going to happen in other parts of the world as well. Bob said he thinks peak oil is good science even if others disagree.

The caller asked Bob if he agreed with the Armageddon forecasts that are based on the eventual decline in oil production?

Bob said he didn't because we don't rely on oil near as much as we used to as well as the fact that we now have alternate sources of fuel that are being tapped. Oil only accounts for only 4.5% of GDP in the U.S., whereas years ago it was in the teens. That is why you haven't seen a significant economic impact even with oil trading in the mid-$90s. That said, world oil production is either at, near or past Hubbert's peak. Countries like China and India are growing very fast which puts a lot of demand on oil. We obviously have supply/demand oil issues; otherwise oil wouldn't be trading above $90. This is hurting people who live paycheck to paycheck. Bob said he doesn't know where oil prices are going at this point and only a fool would try to predict that at this point.

David Korn Comment: Charlie Maxwell, the oil energy expert, was on Moneytalk in September and predicted that oil should stay in a range of $50s up to $80 a barrel for another two years. Bob took up this mantra in response to a caller some weeks back saying he was going to go with Charlie's prediction. Up until recently, Charlie had been pretty on the mark as oil had only gone to the upper $70s. With oil now knocking on $100 a barrel, the prediction Charlie last made is pretty much out the window.

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Sunday, November 4, 2007

Bob Brinker's Moneytalk (From David Korn's Newsletter)

Excerpted from "David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007." October 27-28, 2007 Newsletter


Brinker Comment: Microsoft reported earnings on Thursday night and it was a great report! The new version of Windows has really increased the growth rate at the company. The Vista version has really been on a tear. Sales of Windows Vista are up 25%. Net income is up 23%. Revenues are up 27%. Every one of the company's five divisions exceeded goals. Coming up in February, Microsoft will issue updates to its products. If you go back to the early 1990s, Microsoft has been an incredible stock. If you invested $7,000 in Microsoft in 100 shares in the 1990s, that would be worth $252,000 today. How can that be? The stock split so many times that you would now have a quarter of a million dollars. The stock rose 9.5% on Friday alone, bringing the stock up into the mid-$30s. All in all a great report for Microsoft.

EC: Microsoft is one of only two stocks that Bob has maintained a "hold" rating on in his newsletter for many many years. The last stock he recommended was UTEK, and given the fiasco surrounding that stock, I think he is gun shy over picking another individual stock, and I think it is possible that he never will again. As far as Microsoft is concerned, it has underperformed the market until recently, but the earnings report was wonderful. Bob recommended it for purchase many years ago, then switched to a hold, and then in March 2003 recommended it as a buy again, and now it is a hold. He hasn't really talked about it for a long time, but in the wake of this great earnings report, I think he wanted to remind listeners that he still covers it in his newsletter.

EC#2: You may recall that I purchased Microsoft for my newsletter portfolio not all that long ago based on my view that Vista would be an earnings boost. I sold Microsoft for a gain, after my stop loss was executed during the correction process this summer. Should have bought back in, but I am happy about putting some of the cash reserves into the QQQQ shares which are up almost 11% since my purchase, and include shares of Microsoft. In fact, QQQQ constitutes over 5% of that index. The Spiders Select Technology (Ticker: XLK) which I also own in my newsletter portfolio has a ton of Microsoft in it, almost 10% of that exchange traded fund holds Microsoft, so it has benefitted from that company's performance as well. Here is a link to Microsoft's Investor Relations web site where you can download the earnings report listen to the webcast and read the 2007 annual report:

EC#3: Another interesting development in Microsoft is its announcement that it is taking a $240 million equity stake in Facebook's next round of finance at a $15 billion valuation. Microsoft is being given exclusive third-party advertising platform partner to Facebook and will begin to sell advertising for Facebook internationally in addition to the U.S. Read more about it here:

EC#4: Microsoft is also getting a lot of interest from the gamers for its latest video game Halo 3 on the Xbox 360. This game is big big business. Halo 3 sold more than $300 million in sales in the FIRST WEEK ALONE! That makes it the fastest selling video game ever. I may have to purchase that game -- for my kids of course, not me. Really. Learn more about it here:

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DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is neither sanctioned by, nor written under the auspices of ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker. This e-mail is not a substitute for listening to Moneytalk, it is only my interpretation and commentary of some of what is discussed on Moneytalk, along with additional educational information that I include, editorial comments about the market and helpful financial links. I also provide my own stock market commentary to subscribers as part of my service and give them access to my web site, If you want to know what was said verbatim on Moneytalk, listen to the show live or subscribe to "Moneytalk on Demand" which allows you to listen to the show in case you missed it live. The web site, has all the links to the ABC Radio Network stations that broadcast the show live. The information contained in this newsletter is not intended to constitute financial advice and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security. This newsletter is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice or legal advice. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007.

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