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Thursday, July 10, 2008

Bob Brinker's Market Timing Model Fails To Predict The Bear Market

David Korn just reported:

Bob Brinker's long term stock market timing model, unfortunately, has failed. According to Bob's own definition, the model (as revised after it failed in the late 1980s) was designed to help avoid a decline of 20% on a closing basis in the S&P 500. Will it be revised again?


In an article published yesterday in Barron's Online, Mark Hulbert wrote of Bob Brinker:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early July, Editor Bob Brinker reported that his stock-market timing model remains in favorable territory. However, he cautioned that oil's price constitutes a "wild card."

  • "In the event oil prices continue to rise, consumers and the stock market will be held hostage to the cost of energy. This would provide a strong headwind against the economic recovery process. If oil prices stabilize or decline from current levels, we believe stock prices can make progress into 2009."

Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested.

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